
Joe Biden told Politico.com "I mean this in a literal sense -- it's going to sound partisan, but I mean it literally: I know what the Republicans are against. I have no notion of what they're for." This would have been funnier and just as true if it had been said by RNC Chairman Michael Steele. Over the past sixteen months the Republicans have done little but complain and obstruct. Now with the national rise of the Tea Party and their candidates, the right wing doesn’t even know what their ideology/talking points are. The Republican Party is desperately trying to engulf Tea Party movement and their energized voters, but at the same time they are trying to calm down and mold Tea Party favorites into more voter friendly, run-of-the-mill Republicans. The reason is obvious; Tea Party candidates are not mainstream enough to win a national election and Republicans know it.
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R) is facing off against Jack Conway (D) to replace retiring Senator Jim Bunning (R). Rand Paul, son of libertarian icon Ron Paul, smashed the establishment Republican in the primary and showed an early lead against Jack Conway in the general election. However, the more the nation learns about Rand Paul the further his numbers slip in Kentucky. Paul and Conway are now in a statistical dead-heat. Paul has very far right libertarian views on affirmative action, Social Security, Department of Education and other major issues that conflict even with conservative talking points. Paul’s presentation of his ideas has attracted national attention and he has become a male Michele Bachmann/Sarah Palin; a hyper-polarizing figure. Unless the Republican party can get Rand Paul to tone down his ideology (at least superficially) he is going to have to spend the next five months fending off attacks and hiding out as he did when he had to cancel his appearance on “Meet the Press” due to his comments on segregation. Rand Paul has too much national baggage now and I predict a major upset in a very red state. Jack Conway (D) by 5 points.
Nevada: This is going to be a very similar race for similar reasons. The Republican running is bat-s!@t crazy Sharron Angle (R), another Tea Party favorite. She will be taking on Harry Reid (D), the current Senate Majority Leader who is bat-s!@t boring. Angle is another far right candidate who is eventually going to scare off Nevada voters. She as well wants to get rid of Social Security and the Department of Education and Energy along with other far right desires. This was acceptable during the primaries but now, by Republican Party pressure, she has revamped her website and toned the extremism down. Harry Reid has even put out her old campaign website to Nevada how out of sync she is with average voters. Harry Reid has abysmal polling numbers but a lot of cash. It would be a mistake to write him off just because of voter angst and poor approval numbers. He has to be one of the most boring and lackluster members in Congress, but don’t forget, he has been winning elections since 1969! He is one hell of a campaigner and knows how to win elections. I predict an unexpected blowout: Harry Reid (D) by 10 points.
Nikki Haley (R) will handedly win the election to be the next Governor of South Carolina. She was a Tea Party favorite with the backing of almost all national conservative figures including Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Governor races are not national issues though. Despite the stories of her alleged affairs, the nation still didn’t really care who she was or what her policies were. Senate races are different. There are only 100 Senators and they are easier to put a name and face to in all areas of the country; plus their votes have more of a direct impact on the nation than state office candidates which raises their relevance outside of their respective state.
Tea Party favorites like Paul and Angle are attracting lots of media attention which is not turning out well for the Tea Party and the Republicans. It is turning national mainstream Republicans off of Tea Party ideals and helps Democrats raise funds. Republicans are so uncomfortable with many Tea Party candidate stances that they have to muzzle them or bribe/threaten them with purse strings. Kentucky and Nevada should have been easy wins, not to mention necessary for the Republican Party to regain control of the Senate. If the Tea Party ideology/candidates cost the Republicans two easy wins in the US Senate, we are going to see the Republicans begin to distance themselves from the movement and let the Tea Party fizzle out.