Cao vs. Cao

In New Orleans on November 4th 2008, approximately 146,000 voters went to the polls to send Barack Obama to the Whitehouse with 70% of the vote (margin of 88,000 votes over McCain). On the same day, William Jefferson, with pending allegations of corruption, won the primary runoff. The fight for the congressional seat would be settled in December. On Saturday, December 6th 2008, 64,418 residence of New Orleans 2nd District showed up to vote in Joseph Cao (R) removing long time incumbent William Jefferson (D) by 1,826 votes. Voter turn out dropped by approximately 55% from the Presidential election to the general election for the House representative. The emotional drain of the Obama election coupled with the lack of excitement for a possibly corrupt incumbent and a Saturday special election date caused the low voter turn out. William Jefferson won Orleans Parish (the heart of New Orleans) by almost 3,000 votes. Cao was able to pick up the bulk of Jefferson Parish which was enough to sneak by Jefferson. The last Republican to hold this seat was Hamilton D. Coleman in 1891.

These factors by no means scream Cao was a shoe in to win New Orleans. Thanks to a perfect storm for New Orleans’ democrats, Cao snuck in. Cao should know this very well and do what is necessary to try to hold on to his seat in 2010. So far it is not looking good. During the first quarter of his tenure, Cao has proven to be a poor fundraiser, raising only $143K of which he only has $61K left. Fundraising is a learnable art; however, his dollar amount is substantially lower than the other freshman Republicans from Louisiana. Being a republican in a sea of democrats doesn’t help. His voting record is not prompting much local financial support. Politico reported that during the economic stimulus package vote in D.C., Cao was noticeably bullied into voting “no” by minority deputy whip, Kevin McCarthy. Before the vote, Cao was recorded as leaning “yes” as his district would benefit greatly from the stimulus as his community is still struggling from Hurricane Katrina. Cao is undoubtedly viewed as a fluke in the New Orleans area; a fluke who is voting against the best interests of his constituents.

If Cao wants any chance of keeping his seat in 2010 he must represent his constituents and not his party. This will be a lose-lose scenario for fundraising. Representing his constituents will boost local contributions; however, bucking the party will hurt his current support from Newt Gingrich and minority leader John Boehner who aided in fundraising in the area on March 17th and 26th respectively. Bucking the Republican Party will gain him nationwide name recognition as well as show his loyalty to New Orleans. His current voting record will only strengthen his Democratic challenger, currently thought to be Cedric Richmond, who will enter the election as the strong favorite. (It should be noted he has voted with Democrats on children’s healthcare (SCHIP) and the Lilly Ledbetter bill for women’s wage equality).

The Democratic Party knows Cao’s weakness and he is on their short list of obvious targets. It would be surprising to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party contribute much to the LA 2nd District election in 2010 due to the all but certain Democratic victory. Cao’s only hope is to begin voting with the Democrats on more issues that will benefit his district, draft/co-sponsor New Orleans bills, or if all else fails, switch parties.